In Bangladesh, national polls are considered quite festive occasions, with a tradition of mass participation. As the 12th national election held on January 7, 2024, reached its conclusion, the country witnessed a voter turnout of 41.8% - the third lowest for Bangladesh after the February 1996 and January 2014 national polls. The question arises what does such voting participation mean for Bangladesh’s democracy? What factors are responsible for such a turnout figure? And is the 41.8% figure a satisfactory turnout?
According to the Voter Turnout Database (VTD) by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), voter turnout has been plummeting massively all around the world since the early 1990s. Since the 1960s, voter turnouts across the globe have declined by over 10 percentage points. While over 77% of citizens voted in national legislative and presidential elections in the late 1960s, the rate dropped significantly after 2010, standing at a global average below 67%.
In Bangladesh, the first national parliament election registered a 54.91% voter turnout as the Bangabandhu-led Awami League achieved a landslide victory with 73.20% of total votes. After the assassination of Bangabandhu, 3 consecutive general elections (1979, 1986, and 1988) were held under the military rules of Ziaur Rahman and Hussain Muhammad Ershad, the voting figures of which are largely unreliable. In the 5th general election (1991), the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) secured 30.81%, while the Awami League received 30.08% of total votes. Around 55.45% of voters showed up at the polling centers.
Before the consecutive victories of the Awami League since 2008, the party won the June 1996 (7th) and 2008 general elections (9th) – both of which were reported to be free and fair by many national and international observers. An analysis of all 12 parliamentary elections reveals that in only 4 elections, the voter turnout exceeded over 70% – 3 of which were won by the Awami League (June 1996, 2008, and 2018) and 1 by the BNP (2001). The highest voter turnout of 87.13% was registered in the 2008 9th parliamentary elections, and the lowest number of votes was cast in February 1996 with a voter turnout of 21%.
Voter Turnout (%)
Since 1973
No Data Found
Both the February 1996 and 2024 elections were boycotted by the main opposition parties. In the 1996 national polls during BNP’s rule, the then main opposition Awami League boycotted the elections, and the country witnessed the lowest voter turnout in history – only 21%. It’s interesting to note how Bangladesh’s public responded to election boycotts back then compared to today, as the 2024 national polls, boycotted by the present main opposition BNP, saw a 41.8% voter turnout.
The Absence of BNP
First, the absence of the BNP in the elections. As BNP boycotted the elections on their own volition, BNP gave the option to the Awami League to basically run against itself. This led to two critical situations: one, a vast majority of BNP leaders, rank and file activists, and supporters did not show up to the polling centers to exercise their democratic rights as they could not find their top choice in the ballot paper. The voter turnout in the constituencies that historically belonged to the BNP supports this hypothesis. For instance, BNP stronghold Lakshmipur drew only 26% of the voters, while Bogura and Kurigram, which are traditionally BNP and JP bastions, witnessed 30% voter turnouts. Two, it is assumed that a certain number of Awami League supporters also did not show up, as they did not see their party’s victory in jeopardy.
Violence and Arson
Second, a series of violent and arson attacks leading up to the polls significantly impacted the turnout. As witnessed during the 2014 national polls, when the BNP does not participate in elections, they resort to widespread violence in order to intimidate and discourage voters from showing up at the polling centers. This year, two days before the national polls, BNP launched its final chapter of a violent saga, leaving the citizens in fear. A total of 14 arson attacks were reported from all over Bangladesh within 16 hours on January 6, 2024, the day before the election. The main target was schools, which are used as makeshift voting centers during elections in Bangladesh.
This was a continuation of their policy of resisting the polls, which peaked from the last week of October 2023. BNP and its ally Jamaat-E-Islami imposed 23 days of blockades and 6 days of general strikes until January 5, 2024. Further, BNP-Jamaat observed two days of strikes on January 6 and 7, coinciding with election day. Due to violence carried out during the coercive political programmes like blockades and strikes, a Sramik League leader and two bus helpers were killed in arson attacks and another 6 people were killed in the train sabotage incident, when BNP-Jamaat activists set fire to a running train.
During this time, 20 bus drivers and helpers, 144 policemen, 25 Ansar forces, 3 fire service personnel, 102 ordinary people and more than half 50 journalists were burnt and injured by BNP-Jamaat activists. Simultaneously, 2 educational institutions were set on fire and a total of 655 vehicles and 10 ambulances were set on fire and vandalized. Additionally, more than 20 acts of vandalism on the railways resulted in 12 trains being vandalized and/or set on fire. 6 party offices of Awami League were vandalized and burnt at various places and the courtroom in Khulna was set on fire by pouring petrol.
Given the ground realities, i.e. the boycott by a major opposition party and a continuous and violent voter intimidation campaign in a country that does not have a compulsory voting system, the 41.8% is a large percentage of voters participating in the elections. As the seventh most populous nation in the world, Bangladesh has roughly 120 million eligible voters (119,691,633). This means that a 41.8% turnout equals to more than 50 millions voters exercising their democratic franchise. That’s a large number of people, from diverse socio-economic backgrounds and identities, many of whom were first time voters exercising their ability to choose their representatives.
1st National Parliament Election 1973
Registered Voters: 35,205,642 | Voter Turnout: 54.91%
2nd National Parliament Election 1979
Registered Voters: 38,363,858 | Voter Turnout: 51.29%
3rd National Parliament Election 1986
Registered Voters: 47,305,886 | Voter Turnout: 61.10%
4th National Parliament Election 1988
Voter Turnout: 52%
5th National Parliament Election 1991
Registered Voters: 62,181,743 | Voter Turnout: 55.45%
6th National Parliament Election 1996
Registered Voters: 56,149,182 | Voter Turnout: 21%
7th National Parliament Election 1996
Registered Voters: 56,716,935 | Voter Turnout: 74.96%
8th National Parliament Election 2001
Registered Voters: 74,946,364 | Voter Turnout: 75.59%
9th National Parliament Election 2008
Registered Voters: 81,087,003 | Voter Turnout: 87.13%
10th National Parliament Election 2014
Registered Voters: 91,965,167 | Voter Turnout: 40.04%
11th National Parliament Election 2018
Registered Voters: 104,142,381 | Voter Turnout: 80.20%
12th National Parliament Election 2024
Registered Voters: 119,691,633 | Voter Turnout: 41.8%
Thus, it is submitted that while the 41.8% is not Bangladesh’s best show in terms of voter turnout, under the prevalent extraordinary circumstances where a major political party used every means at their disposal to intimidate voters and resist voting, and given the overall global declining voting trend, it is nonetheless, a healthy figure.
About the Author
Shah Ali Farhad is the founder and publisher of the Confluence. He is a lawyer, policy-researcher, and political activist. He is currently engaged with the Dhaka-based think-tank, the Centre for Research and Information (CRI), as its Senior Associate. He is an advocate of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh and a Barrister of the Lincoln’s Inn, UK. He previously served as a Special Assistant to the Prime Minister of Bangladesh. He holds a masters of public policy (MPP) from the University of Oxford, and a masters in human rights law (LLM) from the University of Hong Kong.
Shah Adaan Uzzaman is the Blog Administrator at The Confluence. A former Bangladesh Television Debate Champion and winner of several policy & debate competitions, he is currently a student of IBA, University of Dhaka.